Why Dapo Abiodun's Senate Ambition Could Torch APC's Chances In Ogun State Come 2027

By Olayinka Olufowobi from Odogbolu

Imagine it, It is 2027, the stakes are sky-high for President Tinubu's legacy, every Senate seat is a battlefield, and the APC in Ogun East is suddenly bleeding votes like a wounded lion. The reason? They handed the ticket to Governor Dapo Abiodun, the same man whose own backyard voters have already turned their backs on him twice in the most humiliating ways possible. This isn't speculation; it's a political horror story written in election results, a governor whose popularity is evaporating faster than morning dew under the Ogun sun. Buckle up, because if APC ignores the red flags screaming from Abiodun's record, 2027 could turn Ogun State into the party's graveyard.

Let’s rip the band-aid off with the brutal truth everyone in Ijebu-Ode and Sagamu whispers, but few say out loud. In 2015, Abiodun ran for Ogun East Senate and got demolished by Buruji Kashamu. No close shave, no excuses, just a clear, stinging defeat. Fast-forward to 2019: he only snagged the governorship because Otunba Gbenga Daniel pulled strings hard. That viral photo from Daniel’s Asoludero residence? Abiodun with his arm triumphantly raised, like the victory was already sealed before ballots were cast. He squeaked through with barely over 19,000 votes. Without that heavyweight alliance, Game Over.

Then came the real gut-punch: 2023. This is where the nightmare gets vivid.

During the February presidential election, Abiodun, the sitting governor, couldn’t even win his own polling unit. Voters who see him daily said no thanks to Tinubu's man on the ground. His ward crumbled next. Then, in the March governorship race, the humiliation peaked. Despite clinging to re-election by a razor-thin margin (after tribunal drama and Supreme Court battles), he lost his home Local Government Area, Ikenne, outright to PDP’s Ladi Adebutu: 12,472 to 9,133. His own people wiped the floor with him.

The drama was electric. Pre-election, alliances shattered, his once-ironclad bond with Daniel exploded into public feuds and accusations. Abiodun was spotted at Adebutu’s polling unit during the presidential vote, triggering police investigations over interference claims. PDP cried foul over 99 cancelled polling units that could have flipped the result, dragging it through courts. Even in Dimeji Bankole’s Abeokuta South ward (PU 6, Ward 10), PDP crushed him 77-65. His personal polling unit? A nail-biting 147-142 win, five votes. Five. That’s not leadership; that’s clinging to power by fingernails.

These aren’t flukes. They’re flashing neon signs: if a governor can’t lock down his polling unit in a national race, can’t hold his ward, and gets demolished in his home LGA during his own re-election, he’s radioactive. Put him up for councilor or local chairman tomorrow? He’d get buried. His base isn’t loyal, it’s gone.

And why the rejection? Because daily life in Ogun State is a grinding reminder of mismanagement and dwindling popularity. Roads are a national disgrace. Recent reports slam Ogun as topping lists for Nigeria’s worst road quality in 2024 and 2025, from Abeokuta’s Psychiatric Hospital stretch to Ita-Oshin, Olomore, Lafenwa, all the way to Sango-Ota, Ijoko, Agbara industrial zones, and border communities like Ajegunle. Potholes swallow cars, turn commutes into ordeals, spike accidents (Ogun led road crashes in Q4 2025), and cripple businesses. Residents scream about neglect on social media, with viral videos and posts calling out “deplorable” conditions that haven’t improved despite promises.

Hospitals? Underfunded nightmares. Primary health centres rot from neglect despite federal funds meant to fix them. Olabisi Onabanjo University Teaching Hospital still draws “worse than deplorable” complaints. Communities like Sawonjo cry out over no power, no roads, no equipped clinics, pure abandonment. Infrastructure feels depleted, not upgraded. People aren’t just frustrated; they’re furious. Popularity doesn’t survive when governance delivers daily hardship instead of progress.

2027 isn’t a sideshow, it’s Tinubu’s make-or-break moment. Every Senate ticket must energize, not alienate. Giving Ogun East to Abiodun, a man who lost the seat once, needed a godfather photo-op to win governorship, watched his constituency reject him in 2023, and now presides over crumbling roads and neglected hospitals, is handing PDP a gift-wrapped victory. It’s not rewarding loyalty; it’s political suicide.

Ogun East deserves a fighter who commands real respect on the ground, not a fading star betting on borrowed time. APC, wake up. The clock is ticking, the potholes are deepening, and the voters are waiting. Ignore the warning signs, and watch the disaster unfold.